Imprecise Probabilities and Unstable Betting Behaviour

نویسندگان

چکیده

برای دانلود رایگان متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Imprecise Probabilities

Consider the uncertainty about whether it will rain in Brisbane next weekend. A weather forecaster may be able to assess a precise probability of rain, such as 0.3285 . . . , although even an expert should feel uncomfortable about specifying a probability to more than one or two decimal places. Someone who has little information about the prospects for rain may be able to make only an imprecise...

متن کامل

Ignorance and Imprecise Probabilities

Decisions or inferences sometimes have to made in situations where substantive information about aspects of the problem are either lacking or conflicting. This is often handled by constructing a non-informative prior by appealing to principles such as indifference, maximum entropy, invariance, or maximizing missing information. Unfortunately these priors and the resulting posteriors may depend ...

متن کامل

Imprecise and Indeterminate Probabilities

Bayesian advocates of expected utility maximization use sets of probability distributions to represent very different ideas. Strict Bayesians insist that probability judgment is numerically determinate even though the agent can represent such judgments only in imprecise terms. According to Quasi Bayesians rational agents may make indeterminate subjective probability judgments. Both kinds of Bay...

متن کامل

Racetrack Betting and Consensus of Subjective Probabilities

In this paper we consider the dynamic process of race track betting. We show that there is a close connection between the dynamic race track betting process and the pari-mutuel method for constructing consensus of subjective probabilities considered in Eisenberg and Gale. This enables us to show that there exists a unique equilibrium point for the betting process. We further show that the dynam...

متن کامل

Computation with imprecise probabilities

An imprecise probability distribution is an instance of second-order uncertainty, that is, uncertainty about uncertainty, or uncertainty for short. Another instance is an imprecise possibility distribution. Computation with imprecise probabilities is not an academic exercise—it is a bridge to reality. In the real world, imprecise probabilities are the norm rather than exception. In large measur...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Noûs

سال: 2016

ISSN: 0029-4624

DOI: 10.1111/nous.12148